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IEA report: Global PV will add 156GW in 2021! 200GW in 2022!

Data:2021-12-06

The International Energy Agency (IEA) said that despite the soaring commodity prices and rising manufacturing costs, the global solar mounting development this year is still expected to increase by 17%.

In most countries around the world, utility solar projects provide the lowest cost of new electricity, especially in the case of rising natural gas prices. IEA predicts that in 2021, 156.1GW of photovoltaic installations will be added globally.

This represents a new record. Even so, this figure is still lower than other development and installation expectations. The research institute BloombergNEF predicts that 191GW of new solar energy will be installed this year.

In contrast, IHS Markit estimates that the installed capacity of solar bracket in 2021 is 171GW. The medium development plan proposed by the trade association SolarPower Europe is 163.2GW.

IEA stated that the COP26 climate change conference announced a more ambitious clean energy goal. With the strong support of government policies and clean energy goals, solar photovoltaic "still remains the source of renewable energy power growth."

According to the report, by 2026, renewable energy will account for nearly 95% of the increase in global power capacity, and solar mounting structure alone will account for more than half. The total installed photovoltaic capacity will increase from about 894GW this year to 1.826TW in 2026.

IEA report: Global PV will add 156GW in 2021! 200GW in 2022!

Under the premise of accelerated development, the annual new production capacity of global solar mounting system will continue to grow, reaching nearly 260 GW by 2026. Key markets such as China, Europe, the United States, and India have the largest growth rates, while emerging markets such as sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East also show considerable growth potential.

Fatih Birol, Executive Director of IEA, said that this year's increase in renewable energy has set a record, which shows that another sign is emerging in the new global energy economy.

"The high commodity and energy prices we see today pose new challenges to the renewable energy industry, but the rising prices of fossil fuels also make renewable energy more competitive."

IEA also proposed an accelerated development plan. This scheme assumes that the government has solved the problems of permitting, grid integration, and lack of remuneration, and provides targeted policy support for flexibility. According to this plan, 177.5GW of solar photovoltaic will be deployed globally this year.

Although solar energy is on the rise, new renewable energy projects are expected to be far less than the number needed to achieve the global net-zero emission target by the middle of this century. According to this goal, between 2021 and 2026, the average growth rate of renewable energy power generation will almost double that of the main situation described in the report.

The flagship report of the World Energy Outlook released by the IEA in October shows that in the IEA's 2050 net zero emission roadmap, the global average annual increase in solar photovoltaics from 2020 to 2030 will reach 422GW.

The price increase of silicon, steel, aluminum, and copper is an unfavorable factor for commodity prices

The IEA stated in the latest report that at present, rising commodity prices have put upward pressure on investment costs. The supply of raw materials and rising electricity prices in some markets have added additional challenges for solar photovoltaic manufacturers in the short term.

Since the beginning of 2020, the price of photovoltaic-grade polysilicon has more than quadrupled, steel has increased by 50%, aluminum has increased by 80%, and copper has increased by 60%. In addition, freight rates from China to Europe and North America have also risen sharply, in some cases by ten times.

IEA estimates that commodity and freight costs account for approximately 15% of the total investment cost of utility solar mounting structure. According to the comparison of average commodity prices from 2019 to 2021, the overall investment cost of utility photovoltaic power plants may increase by about 25%.

The rise in commodities and freight has affected the contract prices of government tenders, and markets such as Spain and India have seen higher contract prices this year. The IEA stated that the rising price of equipment required for photovoltaic power plants poses a challenge to developers who have won the bidding and anticipate continued decline in module costs.

According to the IEA, from 2019 to 2021, about 100GW of solar photovoltaic and wind energy projects that have won bids but have not yet been put into operation are facing the risk of commodity price shocks, which may delay the project's commissioning.

Nevertheless, the impact of rising commodity prices on the demand for new capacity is limited. Governments have not adopted major policy changes to cancel tenders, and corporate purchases are breaking another year-on-year record.

Despite the long-term risk of high commodity prices, the IEA stated that if commodity and freight prices ease in the near future, the downward trend in the cost of solar mounting system will continue, and this technology demand will be affected in the long-term. It may also be very small.

CHIKO Solar 's various efficient and flexible solar mounting structure solutions are waiting for you here! Welcome to consult!

Above news from CHIKO Sales & Marketing department
Add: No 680 Xingwen Rd. Jiading dist. Shanghai 201801 China Email: Chiko@Chikolar.com
Website: http://www.chikolar.com Fax : +86 (21)59972938
Phone: +86(21) 59972267 59973712 59973713--811

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