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In 2022, the newly installed capacity of global solar mounting system is expected to exceed 200GW for the first time!

Data:2021-11-22

According to a new report released by IHS Markit, although production costs continue to rise, the global solar mounting system capacity will increase by more than 20% in 2022, breaking the 200GW (DC) mark for the first time, and the total investment required is at least 170 billion. Dollar.
 
 In 2022, the newly installed capacity of global solar mounting system is expected to exceed 200GW for the first time!
 
From 2013 to 2020, the global cost of photovoltaic power generation systems has fallen by more than 50% on average. The declining cost of photovoltaic systems is a key factor in the exponential growth of this industry. During this period, global installed capacity increased by 275%.
 
However, in 2021, the cost of photovoltaic systems will increase by 4% year-on-year, bringing new challenges to the booming market.
 
Although the cost has exceeded expectations, the installed capacity of major markets such as China, India, the United States and Europe has once again promoted the expansion this year. Among them, the fastest growth comes from the field of distributed solar bracket led by China.
 
IHS Markit Clean Energy Technology Research Manager Josefin Berg said, "In 2021, the utility sector will be the most affected, with multiple projects being postponed or cancelled. In contrast, driven by the fuel crisis and soaring electricity prices, distributed generation will also It is the strong growth in the household and industrial and commercial sectors, especially in the entire European market. This is part of the success of solar photovoltaic in 2021."
 
IHS Markit predicts that in 2021, the installed capacity of solar mounting structure will experience double-digit growth and will continue to grow until 2022. By then, the installed capacity is expected to exceed the 200GW (DC) mark, which means that in a high price environment, the global installed capacity will experience double-digit growth for the second consecutive year.
 
Next year, the cost will continue to rise, until the release of new capacity in 2023, let people breathe a sigh of relief
 
In the past year, the logistics and supply chain suffered drastic damage to push the cost of solar photovoltaic materials to new highs. In addition, China implemented new power curtailment measures in the second half of 2021, limiting the output of manufacturers in some provinces, affecting the production of key materials such as metallic silicon, polysilicon and solar glass, and further pushing up prices.
 
From October 2020 to October 2021, the price of polysilicon has risen by more than 200%. At the same time, the prices of other module materials have also risen sharply, such as solar glass and copper, which has forced module manufacturers to increase their prices. IHS Markit estimates that since August 2021, the average module production cost has risen by more than 15%, and module prices have now reached the level of 2019.
 
Other solar mount components, such as inverters and trackers, are also affected by the shortage of some materials (including semiconductor components) and the high cost of raw materials such as steel. IHS Markit predicts that the current high freight rates and subsequent transportation delays will continue until 2022, which will especially affect the economics of international projects.
 
Edurne Zoco, executive director of clean energy technology at IHS Markit, said, “The entire global market is very interested in investing and developing solar projects, but the supply chain is not ready to meet this level of demand. It will take time to adjust. In the polysilicon market , We can see this most clearly. This will continue to be a bottleneck restricting the development of solar photovoltaics in 2022. This problem will continue until 2023 until the mass production of new capacity projects."
 
It is expected that the continued tightness of the supply chain will keep the price of solar mounting system high before 2023. Once polysilicon production capacity remains at the same level as other nodes in the module supply chain, and China’s curtailment of other key module materials (such as polymers and solar glass) is eased, costs will begin to resume a downward trend starting in 2023 .
 
It is worth noting that the improvement of module efficiency predicted in the module technology roadmap, that is, passivated contact cell (TOPCon) or heterojunction cell (HJT) technology will also help reduce production costs from 2023.
 
Policy uncertainty is still a factor
 
The policy uncertainty of the world’s three major solar photovoltaic markets-China, the United States and India is a common problem faced by the forecast in 2022, and the policy uncertainty problem should be resolved before the first quarter of 2022. Policy announcements will have a significant impact on production capacity decisions and market installation speed. For example, in China, the length and intensity of the current curtailment will determine the utilization rate of solar photovoltaic and the supply of domestic and international markets.
 
In the United States, due to high costs, possible delays in investment tax credit policies, and increasing obstacles to importing solar panel mounting components from the international market, policy decisions and future changes in macroeconomic conditions may undermine the expectations of 20% of U.S. utility projects next year .
 
Edurne Zoco, executive director of clean energy technology at IHS Markit, predicts, "In the past two years, the cost of solar photovoltaics has fallen into a deadlock. Nevertheless, solar energy is still one of the energy technologies with the lowest capital expenditure and the fastest to install energy. Driven by technological competitiveness, multi-functional characteristics and installation speed, it is estimated that the newly installed capacity of solar projects will exceed 1000GW (DC) in 2025, which will play an important role in the decarbonization of the power system in this decade."


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